Monday, September 21, 2015

Risk versus Reward



Risk versus Reward

All decisions in life come down to risk versus reward. If we do 'x' then 'y' or 'z' may happen and do we like 'y' or 'z' or not? There are 4 paths that I see:

1. If we do not like either, we do not act.

2. If we like y but not z, then we have some internal debate about what is likelihood of either happening and then decide whether to act or not. We really have no clue, but it's nice to have some false conviction we can predict the future. If you are on Wall Street you just make shit up on a spreadsheet, call it "research" and then sell it to others based solely on your complete inability to predict the future as well, plus charge a fee and buy a new Porsche or something. 

3. Sometimes we don't give a crap and just do something without thinking. I have found this has the same probability of success as thinking really hard trying to predict the future (minus all the time wasted thinking). 

4. Or we sit there and just think and never do anything ~ paralysis by analysis or as a mentor once called it = "Mental Masturbation".


What is Risk?
Risk is Potential Pain. 

What is Reward?
Reward is Potential Pleasure. 

Risk versus Reward = Pain versus Pleasure
As humans, we want pleasure and we do not want pain. Some of what we gain pleasure from is hardwired in the brain with releases of dopamine for things such as eating, having sex and exercise. The brain knows we need those for survival and continuing the species, so we get a little hit of dopamine from simple biological things. 

But now we can get dopamine from drugs, chemicals in crappy food, porn, video games, b.s. motivation posters, facebook likes, twitter followers, instagram hearts and other forms of unnatural things. And... science has shown that just the expectation of those things releases dopamine in the brain. 

Dopamine is really the "expectation of reward" chemical, not the reward chemical. This is why the anticipation of a reward is many times better than the reward itself. Also, why we feel down after the high of getting the reward has worn off. We used up all of our neurochemicals anticipating and getting, then we need some "downtime" to restore those neurochemicals.

So, what's next after that cycle? We 'Chase the Dragon' to feel that pleasure again and again and again. At the same time, we are constantly on the lookout for pain and are attempting to avoid it at all costs. It's a hijacking of the prefrontal cortex by the amygdala, the "lizard brain". 


As humans don't like to face reality or call things by their true names, we have developed these cover words of "Risk" and "Reward" to lie to ourselves. Really all we are doing is pleasure seeking and avoiding pain, over and over, every minute of our lives until we die. It's not "good" or "bad", some of it is biological and some of it is delusional. 

If someone is pointing a gun at me, I have an instant risk assessment as being very high, so I act to avoid the potential pain and death. I am attached to "living" and "being alive" so act in a way to protect myself and my attachment to myself. Same for it someone was pointing a gun at my children - I'm attached to them so would want to save them. 

If I am a millionaire, may lose $1,000 in a business deal and then I have the same risk assessment reaction as if someone is going to shoot me, then I am delusional. My attachment to money has become overinflated in importance. 

I've lost every material possession I have ever had, they are all impermanent. I am still here despite all that loss. What I had control of though, was a choice to experience pain and suffering or not, I felt the pain and suffering because I was delusional. My values were "out of whack". 


Here is a simple coin on it's side. One side is "Pleasure" and one side is "Pain". They are both on the same coin, so they are inseparable, we need both to have a "coin". We need both to be a human and live a satisfied and fulfilling life. Too much of either side of the coin and we are at higher risk of unsatisfaction, loss of safety and death. Usually we become out of balance by excess pleasure seeking in America, not an army of insurgents enacting genocide, really we have it good here all things considered. 

Most people think they are risk-averse (good at avoiding potential pain), but studies show we are terrible at risk assessment (future predicting) and really want pleasure. The expectation of pleasure drowns out the voice in our head that there could be potential pain ahead... and then we get married (easy joke there). Seriously though, the anticipation of a reward routinely beats out the anticipation of loss, thus why there are so many people who buy high and sell low in all financial markets. We are emotionally weak at knowing what to do and when, we do not know ourselves well enough to be trusted by ourselves.

The way out of this situation is the be on the edge of the coin, not flipping it hoping for it to land on pleasure and not on pain. That is all we are doing with "Risk versus Reward" and risk assessment, flipping a coin hoping to predict the future. It's a fools game. Just be on the edge and whatever side it lands on you are not squashed by the coin! This is why long-term buy and hold investors make money in stocks (ie, Warren Buffett) and the rest of us lose money. He knows himself and has the discipline to not seek excess pleasure while listening to his voice helping him avoid potential pain. This is why I do not invest in stocks, well it's a con game unless you have a billion dollars, but otherwise I have an exceptionally poor record of avoiding pain and limiting pleasure seeking... So now I meditate and read stoic philosophy, that's all I have found that works. 


As Pain and Pleasure are on the same plane of existence, there is an equal and opposite reaction to them, they are antagonists. Super high, unnatural levels of pleasure will be followed by super high pain (suffering). See above at the beginning. 

I think about being in a new relationship and infatuated with that person (basically high all the time) and then they break up with me, resulting in major pain and suffering. I think of being addicted to drugs or sugar and then I can't get them, not a fun place to be in. I think about chasing money, then going bankrupt. It's all the same roller coaster, I hate roller coasters in real life, but chose to ride one in my head for 30+ years.  

When we are on the edge of the coin, equally balancing Pleasure and Pain, not attached to pleasure and not avoiding pain, the amplitude of the wild swings decreases. I still get pleasure from things and I have a manageable amount of pain which I can deal with in a healthy manner. 

Pleasure is not " good or bad", it just is. Pain is not "good or bad", it just is. Both happen when they happen, the severity of them is based on our attachments, mental constructs around them and our brains' neurochemicals. 

The chart above I would equate with the normal and healthy maturation process of a human, certainly one with a higher level of well being present. If you ever "flatline" and have no pleasure or pain you are most likely dead.

What's the Point?
As usual, there isn't one, I'm just writing stuff to organize my thoughts. This is my first blog since I wrote the book, so getting back into the swing and my writing is terrible again after a break. I broke James Altuchers' rule - "Write every day" and like starting over in the gym, my brain hurts and my performance is weak :) Anyway, a little self humbling (or self deprecation) is always humorous. 

I try not to chase too much pleasure or avoid too much pain. At the same time, I try not to worry about whether I will get all the pleasure I want or avoid all the pain I can. It's basically a  waste of time and mental energy I have found. Pleasure can be found in simple things I can always access with meditation, gratitude, moderation, right view and correct insight. Then if I fall in love or something, well it will feel like it supposed too and I won't be deluding myself with infatuation or craving  instead. That sounds like a good thing. 



If you want to chat, feel free to email me at douglashilbert@yahoo.com
  

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